Can the Scottish team at last end their All Blacks hoodoo?

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.